The third edition of the DotaCinema Captains Draft tournament has been a great one so far, with some of the top teams in the west really showing their consistency despite the competition being played outside of the traditional competitive game mode Captains Mode. For this particular day of the tournament, we will be looking at the all-Swedish Alliance versus the boys from CIS Vega Squadron.
Alliance (2/5 Betfair) v Vega Squadron (2/1 bet365)
Looking at the rest of the bracket, we see that Vega Squadron actually 2-o’d Alliance in the winners bracket, with the second game of that series ending after just 25 minutes. This tells us that they are indeed capable of defeating Alliance in this series, and that they don’t even have to take it to three games to do so. However, Vega’s momentum and morale likely took a hit from their 0-2 loss to EG in the winners bracket finals, which might come into play against a team that has been dominating their opponents in this patch for the most part. Alliance will not make it easy for Vega to win here, which would explain the difference in their prices. There is definitely a chance they take this series and grab a spot in the grand finals, especially considering that Vega is that one CIS team you can never really count out, whether that be due to their luck or their cohesiveness as a squad.
As for the Swedes, they have proven themselves again and again in this period of time before the Shanghai Major. Not only does this patch favor them as a team whose players are the best in the world at the heroes they’re good at, but they’ve really solidified their chemistry even after not playing with the same lineup for close to two years. The buffs to their signature heroes are doing them plenty of favors and their signature push-heavy playstyle is working for them again. The last time that was the trend, they took it all at The International 2013. In the context of this tournament, the patch may not come into play as much as it would elsewhere, though. Captains Draft means that both teams won’t have the entire hero pool available to them, which means that if the hero selection does not include Nature’s Prophet, Lone Druid, Batrider, and their other signature picks, they could end up playing with less comfort than they’re used to.
With all of these factors considered plus the prices put up on both teams, we have to recommend betting on Vega here. They proved themselves against Alliance once in this tournament, and we believe they can do so again — but only if they put the winners bracket loss behind them. If they don’t allow themselves to be bogged down too hard by the loss, they’ll be able to come away with the win here. Besides, the value is on their side given that they have a fair chance of winning this series, so the potential returns on a Vega victory are too good to ignore.
Vega Squadron to win with bet365 at 2/1 (3.00)