The group stage of the MarsTV Dota 2 League Winter Finals hit full stride yesterday, but due to scheduling problems causing the tournament to kick off later than expected, some group stage games were delayed to Thursday, January 28th. The group stage will wrap up about seven hours from now, with four best-of-2 matches to choose from.
(Note: unfortunately at the time of writing some bookmakers have suspended their books for the wrap-up games. bet365 however have kept their books open.)
OG (15/8 bet365) vs Newbee (3/1 bet365) (Tie 1/1 bet365)
This match in particular could go either way thanks to OG’s good performance so far and Newbee’s home court advantage, though we’d have to slightly favour OG here. OG handled Evil Geniuses well in their meeting early on in the group, scoring a 2-0 victory against one of the best teams in the West. They also scored 2-0 on Team Spirit, although that team is definitely one of the weaker ones in the field. OG did lose 0-2 to Vici Gaming, but that was their only loss yesterday. Newbee on the other hand have had nothing but draws so far, putting them in a precarious fourth place spot after day 1. They also looked rather shaky in their match against EG, where they threw a massive lead away in the first game only to recover in the second game to tie the series up. We think that OG have the momentum and mental edge going into this series. Although Newbee is priced better, it’s not a significant enough difference.
OG to win 2-0 with bet365 at 15/8 (2.88)
Evil Geniuses (13/8 bet365) vs Vici Gaming (16/5 bet365) (Tie 11/10 bet365)
Probably the biggest toss-up out of the group stage wrap-up games. Evil Geniuses and Vici Gaming are both entirely capable of taking maps off of each other. EG are currently sitting in third with 3 points while VG are on top of the group with 5 points. If VG can take full advantage of the greedy drafting that EG has taken preference to so far, they can come away with a 2-0 victory. On the other hand, if EG can get away with their usual picks and play their game as they normally do, they can take the 2-0 result for themselves. A tie is also well within the realm of possibility in this matchup, but the rather stingy pricing on it compared to the other two choices makes it less appealing. VG is priced quite nicely here despite the fact that they’re in first place right now, so we’re going to go with them on this one.
Vici Gaming to win 2-0 with bet365 at 16/5 (4.20)
CompLexity Gaming (8/1 bet365) vs Team Secret (4/6 bet365) (Tie 6/4 bet365)
The potential payout for a 2-0 result in favor of CompLexity here is pretty huge, but it really isn’t going to happen. Against Team Secret, the best coL can hope for is a tie. Draws actually account for two out of the three match results for coL so far, and these 1-1s were against LGD and EHOME– two strong Chinese teams in the field. So it’s clear that they aren’t floundering in this tournament, at least. Betting on Team Secret to win this series 2-0 is the absolute safe bet, but the better value lies in calling this a tie.
Series tied 1-1 with bet365 at 6/4 (2.50)
Mineski (10/1 bet365) vs EHOME (1/2 bet365) (Tie 7/4 bet365)
This should be an easy 2-0 for EHOME. Mineski look almost completely lost in this tournament, which only makes their situation as the weakest team in the field worse. With the Chinese crowd backing LaNm and friends up, all the odds are stacked against the Filipino team. This is even in spite of the fact that EHOME has had nothing but draws in this round robin. Their chances are just that much higher. Unfortunately this is the best price put up for a 2-0 EHOME victory, but it’s to be expected given the two teams in this matchup.
EHOME to win 2-0 with bet365 at 1/2 (1.50)